Approaches to account for imperfect foresight in assessing the contribution of Energy Storage Systems to resource adequacy

As power systems transition to accommodate greater penetrations of variable renewable energy, short-duration energy storage, particularly Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS), are being increasingly utilised to maintain supply-demand balance. For many power systems, particularly thermal-dominated systems, resource adequacy is assessed using dispatch models that assume perfect foresight – i.e., that variability in demand and renewable power is known in advance to inform intertemporal decision-making. Alternately, hydro-dominated systems typically use stochastic and/or heuristic models which consider uncertainty over days, seasons, and/or years. For short-duration storage such as BESS, an assumption of perfect foresight can overstate availability to contribute to resource adequacy, while traditional hydropower methodologies are less suited to cases where the storage duration is similar to the optimisation time-step.