Optimal power system planning under growing uncertainty

The electrical industry around the world is undergoing an influential evolution with respect to both technology and regulation. On the supply side, countries set very ambitious goals for the high penetration of renewables in future power systems. The uncertainty and intermittency of renewable energy (RE) complicate real-time power balancing and bring significant challenges to power system planning. On the demand side, electrification of transportation, heating, and cooling brings significant uncertainty. The integration of multiple energy systems diversifies the development path for future power systems. Meanwhile, the rapid development of transmission technologies and equipment essentially brings infinite possibilities and uncertainties to the morphology of future power systems. The worldwide trend of power reform and marketization brings policy and structural uncertainties to the power system. Traditional power system planning is a “routine” that uses deterministic methodologies and fixed criteria, which is similar worldwide. Uncertainties relating to both the “hardware” and “software” of power systems require new methods and new mechanisms for optimal power system planning. This report investigates the uncertainty factors that exist in the power systems around the world and how they are considered in system planning.